With seven rounds left of the Premier League, there is still plenty to plenty to play for.
At the top of the table, two teams are left in the title race, although Arsenal are sitting very pretty. It really is theirs to lose, but they do have that reputation.
At the other end, 4-5 teams are desperately trying to avoid that last relegation spot (sorry Burnley and Wolves, the die is cast for you). Tottenham, West Ham, Nottingham Forrest and perhaps even Leeds are in the mix. It’s tight.
Finally, there is always a clattering for those super lucrative European places. Even clubs as low as 12th have a slim chance of making it.
It is so much to keep track of, so over the weekend, I build a tool that does it for me.
Keepwatch uses a combination of maths and LLMs to show users the probabilities of their favourite club’s outcome come the end of season. By simulating the last seven rounds 10k times using live odds, you can clearly see what chances you have of becoming champion, qualifying for Europe, or being relegated.
Where it gets interesting is you can use Chat or Kyle (which is inverted Chat, named after the famous inverted wingback, Kyle Walker) to test scenarios. For example, what happens if one of your star players gets injured? The LLM calculates the impact, updates the probabilities, and reruns the simulation. You can then see how certain events change outcomes; some in a big way.
As games are not zero sum, an injury to a player on another team can actually be a huge impact on your own, even if you don’t play them.
My personal favourite feature is the Deep Dive, where it takes one club and one scenario, runs the simulation, and then pinpoints the 2-5 games that matter MOST. It then searches the web to identify risks, opportunities, and things to watch. In a two minute read, it gives you everything you need to know for the final two months of the season. The ones I would recommend are Man City, Tottenham, and Newcastle to demo, but all of them provide interesting results.
If you’re not embarrassed by your first deployment, you have released too late, or so the saying goes. There are certainly bugs and corner cases and errors that exist, but I think it is halfway decent start. I hope you find it useful, and I would really love your feedback.
Unsurprisingly this application does work on Mobile, but isn’t optimized for it. Still to a PC if you can.
The links you need:
Keepwatch: https://road-to-europe.vercel.app/
Source code: https://github.com/hwetherall/road-to-europe
Leave a Reply