Tuesday is politics day, and it would be irresponsible for me to not to talk about the Iowa Caucuses last night. If you’re reading this, you already know the two big things about it: 1) Trump won, and he won big and 2) it can get really, REALLY cold in Iowa.
Going in, there was some hopes (and because we’re talking Republicans, prayers) that someone would move the needle in Iowa. Would DeSantis, who has spent a LOT of time in the Hawkeye State, get a surprise victory? Would Haley get a comfortable second after Trump, resigning DeSantis to the dustbin and turning the race into a two-horse race going into New Hampshire? The answer is no.
While this was the most likely outcome, it was consolidated by my second point; it gets COLD out there in the Midwest. It was -14 Fahrenheit last night, which is -25 Celsius, but whatever scale you use, that is truly freezing (fun fact, -40 is the intercept point for the two scales).
Now, when it is that cold, motivation is important. I believe that Nikki Haley underperformed due to the weather; there are a lot of people who “like” Nikki, these people tilt moderate and suburban. While they like her, they don’t love her, and when you are tossing up between a warm fire and going into a polar vortex to stand in line on a school night, then you might just stay home. And they did.
In contrast, there are a ton of Trump supporters who would crawl through broken glass to vote. Cold weather, pfft, it won’t make a difference.
What happens next? Well, Vivek is out, he pulled out last night. Nikki Haley MUST win New Hampshire, which is a possibility. If she wins that, and then wins South Carolina, then there might, might, might, be a lane.
DeSantis is toast.
And Trump is almost certainly going to win. I am not going to call it, just yet, but we shall see. I wish her all the best, I think she would be a great president.
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