It is 10pm on Tuesday night, midnight Eastern. ABC, Fox, nor CNN have called it, but I have. It looks like Trump will be the 47th President of the United States.
I picked him as a winner a little while ago, but I didn’t think it would be a done deal before the dawn. To make it even more incredible, it looks like DJT is going to win the popular vote was George W Bush in 2024. It is an impressive victory.
How did this happen? Here are my three thoughts jotted down:
The Never Trumpers cried wolf: Since the election began, I think Trump’s best campaign slogan would have been “you don’t have to like me to vote for me”. It is clear that Donald Trump isn’t a Christ-like figure in character, and he says some pretty wild things from time to time very regularly. However, we have already seen Trump v1, and I think a lot of people thought it wasn’t too bad. In 2016, there was a feel that things would get very dark, but what unfolded, for a lot of people who aren’t political junkies, was actually quite good. Lower prices, higher wages, and no new wars is a pretty good deal for most people.
Harris was not a strong candidate: I follow politics quite closely. I read a lot of articles, and around 70% of my Spotify listens are politically themed. Despite that, I don’t really know what Harris stands for. To be fair, she had a tough run; she only had a short time to campaign after being thrust into the spotlight after Biden defenestrated himself on National Television. My sympathy is limited though; Harris did a poor job in her 2020 Primary Bid, and I find it hard to believe that she would have become a nominee anytime soon.
She played a delicate act trying to present herself as the heir apparent to Biden, while also trying to announce herself as her own person. That was always going to be a tough battle, and her unwillingness to speak off script hurt her. Would a visit to Joe Rogan have paid dividends?
The Issues were on Trump’s side: Each election is about the Economy+. By that I mean the Economy is always the key issue, but there are always a few more. Unfortunately for Harris, they didn’t line up for her.
Immigration and Crime are major motivators for people, and they see it every day. It doesn’t bother me, because I’m insulated from it, but not everyone is. Trump has a lock on these two issues, and that will have helped a lot.
The key issues for Democrats feel like Climate Change, Trans Rights, and Abortion. Abortion is a motivating issue, but Trump was clever enough to take it off the table. Climate Change is a luxury issue. Most people support the environment – no one likes seeing rubbish in the ocean or pandas going extinct – but it usually ranks lower. I’ll expand upon this with a funny story tomorrow. Finally, Trans Rights. I won’t go into it, but the Democrats hoped that it would be the same vote winner that Gay Rights were in the 2000s. It is clearly not.
Finally, it is the Economy Stupid. Inflation really sucks, and people remember the days under Trump when things were cheaper. Yes, the indicators all suggest things are getting a lot better, but the economy for most people aren’t numbers of a screen, it is how they feel at the servo, the supermarket, on payday, and on rent day.
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