The fourth (and perhaps final) Republican Primary Debate was on last night, and I half-heartedly tuned in last night while making dinner. For those out of the loop (which is now about 90% of people), the rules of the debate meant that Haley, DeSantis, Trump and Chris Christie qualified, while outsider Vivek Ramaswamy failed to get the polling required. Only Haley and DeSantis were on stage, as Christie decided to pull out the day before, and Trump continued his strategy of staying off stage, as he is holding on to a seemingly impenetrable lead of between 40-60 points.
If this wasn’t the last debate, it should be, unless Trump comes on to the stage. Haley and DeSantis had a red-hot go at one another, but honestly, I doubt that it makes any difference. My favourite heuristic is “think at the margin”, and I can’t imagine there is a single person who watched that debate and thought, hey, “I used to really like Haley/DeSantis, but after tonight, I am going to swing to DeSantis/Haley (delete as appropriate)”.
My views on what is going on is fairly orthodox; Nikki Haley needs to get a strong second in Iowa, win New Hampshire, and then win South Carolina (her home state), all while DeSantis drops out somewhere along the line. From then on, the hope is that the battle becomes a Haley v Trump showdown, and then a ton of people emerge/switch to Haley. I imagine in a Haley v Biden showdown, Haley will crush the current president, but we’re a long way from there. I personally favour Mrs Haley out of the current Republicans, and were I American, probably support her over Biden. Mr Biden has done a good job so far, but he is simply too old for the job, and I don’t think much of the Vice President.
The other thing that is in the back of everyone’s mind is whether Trump will be taken out not by the electorate, but by health or the judicial system. The former president is facing, last time I checked, 93 indictments, and at 77 years old, is now slightly older than the average American lifespan. No one lives forever, and while being rich helps, being overweight and having worked a high stress career does not help with longevity. The Supreme Court will also have a say if Mr Trump can stay on the ballot in Colorado and Maine.
2024 is shaping up to be a wild ride, and I’ll keep you posted on my thoughts of it as time progresses. Maybe Thursday is the day I focus on it? Let’s work with that for now.
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