I was listening to an interesting podcast today, and in it the commentator set forth what I thought was a very interesting hypothesis: Trump, rather than Biden, is actually the moderate candidate in the 2024 election. I’m going to try and unpack this, and see if I can use writing as a way to organise my thoughts more clearly on the matter.
For this argument to be taken in good faith, you have to divide Trump into two constituent parts; you have what Trump says, and then what he does. I don’t think there has ever been a politician where the difference between the two has been greater.
What Trump says ranges from unhinged to dangerous to comical. We all have our favourites; I have included a few of his more memorable tweets below:
But tweeting is only one avenue where Trump goes off the reservation. His nicknames for opponents (from “Crooked Hillary” to “Sloppy Chris Christie”, to the point where there is an entire Wikipedia page dedicated to them) are well known, and his off the cuff comments about topics ranging from NATO, abortion, and police have people understandably very concerned.
However, the actions of Trump rarely match up with words. Take abortion; Trump has in the past said wild stuff about arresting doctors who perform them, or how in some states abortions are performed post birth (they aren’t). But when it comes down to legislating, Trump is publicly considering a 16 week ban with exceptions. 16 weeks is lower than most countries in Europe, only Sweden, the Netherlands, and Iceland allow later. In regards to same sex marriage, Trump seems to have no issues with it, which is unsurprising. I doubt he is particularly religious, but even if he was, growing up in New York City means he has been exposed to gay people from an early age. To the best of my knowledge, Trump seems fairly ok with SSM, but has some reservations about transgender rights.
In other words, whereas the rhetoric of Trump is highly, highly bombastic, his policy is actually fairly moderate. Most Americans support abortion into the first trimester on request, and with increasing regulatoin as the pregnancy progresses. As for same sex marriage, even the most hardlines Republicans in the Senate, like Rand Paul, have given up this battle. The strongest argument you may hear is something along the lines of “while I may personally disagree with it, at the end of the day we live in a free country, and it’s not the governments role to get involved in people’s lives”.
Let’s take another example, immigration. Now, I don’t believe Joe Biden is an open border zealot, but the fact is, many Americans believe he is. It’s wild to think that in 2015, building a wall was considered a truly wakadoodle policy. But even here in sunny Denver, the winds of change have well and truly arrived. Everytime I drive, I will see more and more migrants from south of the border holding up signs looking for work. The city budget is reallocating resources away from education towards migrants. Many people hold two very valid views at once; sympathy for people who are just trying to live a better life away from what must be hellish countries, and anger that their tax dollars are going towards supporting temporary accommodation while their children have under-resourced schools. More often I hear people, who are not by any definition flaming right wingers, having a second look at Trump and his promises for a secure border.
Perception may not be reality, but in politics, it is pretty close. Trump seems to be tacking to the middle, thus making him more palatable to moderates and independents, while still saying the wild stuff that gets his base super excited.
I’ll bring part two to you tomorrow. As I said at the start, I am not entirely convinced by the argument, but it certainly reframes the way to see the election. Also, this is not an endorsement for either candidate; as a guest in America, I will always support whoever the population decide is the right person to occupy the White House. I genuinely wish them all the best; its a tough job.
Do you have any thoughts? Please let me know in the comments!
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