I am part of a fantasy football league with one other guy, an old colleague from Kiwibank. After a good start, I have largely forgotten about it.
This all changed in Round 20, when I was automatically added to the FPL cup, a knockout competition. Each week you would be assigned a random opponent; score more and you progress to the next round, score less and you’re knocked out until there was a final winner.
Initially, I thought that there was no way this tournament could be successfully completed in half a season, after all, more than a quarter of a million people had entered, and there were only 18 rounds left in the season. It felt like way too many people in way too few rounds.
Turns out that the very human malady of underestimating exponentials had claimed another victim. Here is what it looks like over 18 rounds:
Round | Gameweek | Teams Remaining
——|———-|—————-
1 | MW20 | 262,144
2 | MW21 | 131,072
3 | MW22 | 65,536
4 | MW23 | 32,768
5 | MW24 | 16,384
6 | MW25 | 8,192
7 | MW26 | 4,096
8 | MW27 | 2,048
9 | MW28 | 1,024
10 | MW29 | 512
11 | MW30 | 256
12 | MW31 | 128
13 | MW32 | 64
14 | MW33 | 32
15 | MW34 | 16
16 | MW35 | 8
17 | MW36 | 4
18 | MW37 | 2 → 1 Champion
It’s wild to think that such a big number can be whittled down so quickly, but within 2 rounds, 75% of teams are already out.
Sadly, I was among that 75%, but it was fun while it lasted!