When I think about the AI Space Race, it feels like there are only three countries in the game: the US, China, and perhaps surprisingly, France.
While I went for my daily walk today, I wondered why, and my cute, back of the napkin answer boiled down to two factors, People + Power.
People: Creating AI is tough, and you need smart people to do it. Brain power isn’t enough though (plenty of big brains in Japan, very little AI), so you need to be able to train them. Places like Tsinghua, MIT, Stanford, and the Sorbonne all have massive research budgets training the scientists and programmers of the future, and today, to build these technologies.
Power: These systems are thirstier than the average lad at Schoolies, so you need to be able to keep the lights on if you want to build. The US and China have significant resources and no qualms in using them. France, while lacking in coal and gas, has a secret weapon, the nukes. Nuclear power is expensive to build, but once operational, can produce almost unlimited electricity at low costs. That is always a nice to have, but now it is a great to have.
There are plenty of countries where they have one, but not the other. Germany, Israel, South Korea, Singapore, UK, India etc have smart people and great universities, but lack the power to sustain it. Meanwhile, countries like Australia, Canada, Venezuela and the Gulf States are energy rich, but don’t have the talent. This may change; it’s far easier to move a research scientists than gas seams.
Prediction Time: There are two countries that could join the Big 3. Russia has talent and it has energy, but it’s also a complete basket case with a war that is sucking them dry. I wouldn’t hold my breathe. Saudi Arabia could become the fourth AI superpower, as they have the cash to buy talent, but again, I’m not too sure. A medieval theocracy seems unlikely to have that Innovator Mindset required to become a top player.
For now, it looks like the Big 3 are here to stay.
Leave a Reply