Last week, Donald Trump and Joe Biden took to the stage to debate in their first of two debates. There is a lot to unpack, none of which you probably haven’t already read, but it’s an event worth chronicling.
Takeaway #1 – Biden is in serious trouble:
If there is one thing that unites America, it’s the belief that Joe Biden is very old. The question though, “is Joe too old”. Well, that changed a fair bit last night. The current president looked terrible onstage. There were at times where he looked like he was having a stroke. Often, when him and Trump were side by side, he was just staring into the abyss, mouth ajar, catching flies.
Things got worse when he started talking. There were the usual mix ups, confusing billionaires with trillionaires, which isn’t nice to see, but forgettable. But there were times where he just completely lost his train of thought, and anyone who has ever met an old person instantly recognises something; this person is not 100% there.
Some online have made merriment of the situation, and fair enough, everyone enjoys memes. But the common sentiment I feel is a combination of sadness and fear.
Sadness: it is entirely clear to me that Sleepy Joe has become Sidelined Joe. One of the key roles of the president is to project an image of strength, to be a true representative of the nation that people can look to. Instead, they see someone who may or may not be drooling into their oatmeal each morning. Even if Biden had a bad night, the position he holds doesn’t really allow for them.
Fear: it wasn’t just Americans who saw the debate last night. If you were watching this in Ukraine, Taiwan, or Israel, you would have a sinking feeling in your stomach that your world got a lot less safe. Your enemies, knowing that there may be a new sheriff in town come January (when the new President is inaugurated), and may accelerate their bellicose timelines. Not good.
Take away #2 – Trump did well.
Trump doing well is a relative measure. Had he gone up against a prime 2008 Obama, he would have looked like a kook. Instead, he was up against a half-animated corpse, plus, and this is critical, he managed his worst impulses.
In the 2020 debates with Biden, he was imploding in on himself, and legitimately started ranting and raving. People voted for Joe because they saw him as a return to normalcy, and expected to only see him for a singular term. This time, Trump contained himself. He’ll never be a poetic speaker, but he didn’t attack the moderators, he didn’t launch some nutty conspiracy theory, he didn’t support his theories with “some people say” anecdotes. Instead, he stuck to his game plan, and came across as a serious candidate.
They were low lights, and one has to read into Trump’s statements aware that he has a penchant for the hyperbolic. Yes, there are American cars in Europe. No, most migrants aren’t from mental institutions. But overall, he did a much better job than anytime I have seen him.
Takeaway #3 – CNN did a good job.
Lots of people (in my opinion, unfairly) like to dunk on CNN, but I think they did a terrific job. The rules, no audience, muted microphones, and non-partisan questions, made this a great debate. In the past, I feel networks were just looking for a WWE flavoured event, which encouraged candidates to shout at one another and say progressively wilder things. Hyping the crowd by “owning” your enemies became a winning strategy, even if 90% of people watching were appalled and disenchanted.
People are invested in their home, their future, their society; thus, they’re invested in who is their leader. We all know that our current two choices aren’t the best, but a scenario that doesn’t look like Rock’em Sock’em Robots is a far better alternative.
What next – My predictions:
In order of most orthodox to least:
- Trump becomes the front runner, and will remain so until October. At the moment it’s been neck and neck, those days are over
- 50% of all anti-Biden campaign ads will feature clips from this debate
- There WILL be a second debate. Lots of people are thinking we will be one or done, but I think we will see the rematch
- Joe will not stand down. It’s too late, and he has too much ego
- If he does stand down or get pushed, the person who will most likely replace him will be Kamala Harris. No sane Democrat, eyeing up a 2028 bid, would drink from this poisoned chalice.
So, there it is. CNN have the full interview on YouTube if you want to check it out, otherwise you’d have to be living under a rock not to see clips or commentary on the matter.
Final thought:
There is a short exchange where Trump and Biden contest over who is a better golfer, before Trump chides the president and insists that “he stop acting so childishly”. We live in the most bizarre of timelines.