Blog Post #87: Cancelled Out

I read a book many years ago called “The Signal and the Noise”, by Nate Silver, and I was hooked. Nate has two great skills; he is an incredible data scientist, and an excellent communicator. Think of him like a Dr Karl or Bill Nye but for data. I would recommend giving it a read.

Last night I was reading his Substack post about how the electorate in America no longer split clearly by income, as it has traditionally been. What really got my gears going was this: income directionally aligns with voting Republican, whereas educational attainment correlates strongly with voting Democratic. I know what you’re thinking, aren’t education and income correlated? Yes, yes they are.

Instead of trying to split the baby, think about the outlier exemplars. As Nate puts it, imagine someone who is a high earner but never went past high school. Maybe he runs his own construction company, or works in real estate or resources. While there are always exceptions, the data suggests those people are solidly Republican.

At the same time, conjure up in your mind individuals with high levels of education but low incomes. Academics, journalists, and psychologists all jump to mind. These people are almost always going to vote for Democrats, and do so loudly.

I thought this was an ingenious insight and something I have been thinking about all day. I’m glad I have the opportunity to write about it and share these ideas with y’all.