For the past few weeks, I have been competing in a three way tournament to predict the winner of the FIFA World Cup. Unlike most tipping competitions, where you compete against your friends, I am doing something slightly different.
The two competitors are Model, and Market. Market is the aggregated betting odds of each match, which reflects the “People”. The Model are the tips taken from Nate Silver’s PELE Model, which simulates the tournament 100k times, and uses that to make predictions.
The rules are simple. Each day, we all have to predict the outcome (win, lose, draw) of each game, as well as the score after 90 minutes. You get 1 point for a correct outcome, and two bonus points if you predict the correct score. We have all nominated our ultimate champions as well, by picking our 10 favourites, in order. If your 1st pick wins, you get 10 points, 2nd pick gets 9 points etc. Think of this like the golden snitch in Quiddich.
After a fast start, I fell back a lot, but am now even stevens with the Market on 45 points a piece. However, my winner for the tournament, Portugal, was picked using “Feels over Reals”, and I see myself losing points there fast.
Regardless, it has been a fun little sidequest, and has been a real exercise in game theory, risk, and strategy. While I don’t have the mathematical horsepower of Nate Silver’s model, or the wisdom of crowds that the Market enjoys, I get a serious advantage.
I get to put my picks in last.
If you would like to see the app, you can do so HERE.
As always, the source code is HERE. Don’t forget to star!
Leave a Reply